November's Monthly Commentary
November was a standout month for US equities, with the market propelled by several favorable dynamics. The S&P 500 delivered a strong performance, rising for the ninth time in the past eleven months and ending the month up approximately 26.5% year-to-date, setting the stage for consecutive annual gains of at least 20%—a feat not seen since the late 1990s.
The Russell 2000 led the way at the index level, logging its biggest monthly gain since December 2023, as small-cap stocks emerged as a post-election favorite. Meanwhile, the Treasury market was mixed, with 2-year yields climbing slightly (+2 bps) while 10-year yields fell (-10 bps). The US dollar index extended its rally, rising 1.8%, while gold snapped a four-month winning streak, declining nearly 2.5%. In contrast, Bitcoin futures surged 39%, marking their largest monthly increase since February 2024. WTI crude oil slipped about 1%, reflecting mixed sentiment in energy markets.
WealthTrust Long Term Growth Portfolio Monthly Top 10
Market Commentary: Election Trends and Seasonality for the S&P 500
The outcome of presidential elections historically has minimal impact on the existing trend of the S&P 500. When the market is already in an uptrend leading into an election, history shows that the S&P 500 has been higher three and six months later 85% of the time, regardless of who wins. Conversely, during a downtrend heading into an election, the market has been lower three and six months later 60% of the time.
Currently, the S&P 500 is in an uptrend. For investors seeking opportunities, patience and a focus on pullbacks remain prudent strategies. However, the question of whether a pullback is imminent hinges on a mix of seasonality and current market dynamics.
November and December are typically the strongest months for equities, and a seasonal rally might argue against the likelihood of a near-term pullback. Historically, these months follow the weakest period—September and October—but this year, the S&P 500 returned a healthy +3.0% during that stretch, deviating from the usual pattern. Could this lead to a weaker-than-normal November-December, creating an opportunity for a pullback?
While it’s tempting to weigh both sides of the argument, the focus should be on actionable insights. I believe that despite election-related noise, November delivered, and December is likely to deliver a traditionally strong performance. Investors may benefit from looking through short-term volatility and staying aligned with the broader uptrend.
Market Drivers: Election Clarity and Deregulation Hopes
The quick and decisive resolution of the US election in November served as a major tailwind for equities. The outcome, which saw former President Trump prevail alongside a Republican sweep, triggered a sharp reduction in downside hedges and a retracement in the VIX volatility index. This shift in sentiment spurred systematic fund buying and optimism surrounding deregulation and corporate tax cuts. Analysts project that a corporate tax cut could boost S&P 500 EPS by 4-5%, adding further fuel to the post-election rally.
Seasonality also played a role, with historically favorable trends into year-end aligning with a resumption of elevated corporate buyback activity. Strong economic data, as reflected in the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, added to the positive narrative, hitting highs last seen in February. Key earnings beats, including NVIDIA (+4.1%), bolstered enthusiasm around secular AI growth themes, while Walmart (+12.9%) highlighted the resilience of consumer spending.
Sector Highlights: Winners and Laggards
Small-cap stocks and financials emerged as standout performers, reflecting optimism around deregulation and economic recovery. Regional banks (+14.5%) and major money center banks such as Bank of America (+13.6%), JPMorgan (+12.5%), and Citigroup (+10.4%) posted strong gains, while credit card issuers like Discover (+22.9%) and Capital One (+18.0%) surged.
Industrials also benefited from a cyclical rotation, with machinery (Deere +15.1%), multi-industrials (Emerson +22.5%), and airlines (United Airlines +23.7%) among the best performers. In energy, exploration and production companies (XOP +11.3%) led the sector higher, despite a modest decline in crude oil prices.
Consumer Discretionary was the top-performing sector, gaining +13.24%, driven by strong showings from Tesla (+38.2%) and Amazon (+11.5%), both of which benefited from unique catalysts like operating margin improvements and proximity to favorable policy developments. Retailers, homebuilders, and autos also contributed to the sector's strength.
On the other hand, healthcare and materials lagged. Pharmaceuticals (-4.2%) and hospitals (-8.8%) faced headwinds, while miners and chemicals struggled amid weak commodity dynamics. In tech, semiconductors were flat, although software names like Salesforce (+13.3%) and Oracle (+10.1%) delivered solid returns.
Sector-Level Performance
Sector | Performance |
Consumer Discretionary | +13.24% |
Financials | +10.16% |
Industrials | +7.33% |
Energy | +6.28% |
Technology | +4.57% |
Consumer Staples | +4.55% |
REITs | +3.98% |
Utilities | +3.16% |
Communication Services | +3.09% |
Materials | +1.45% |
Healthcare | +0.13% |
Looking Ahead
With momentum heading into December, investor focus will likely turn to year-end seasonality and corporate earnings. The market is optimistic about low double-digit Q4 earnings growth, which would mark the strongest performance in three years. Additionally, projections for 2025 earnings growth remain robust, with all four quarters expected to deliver double-digit gains.
November's rally underscored the resilience of US equities amid a complex macroeconomic and political landscape.
As always, a disciplined, long-term perspective remains key to navigating both market seasonality and election-driven uncertainty